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How many times has the team you
wagered on staked out a decent lead, only to let it slip
away in the second half? Anyone who bet on Tampa Bay
last night (led 21-0 after two quarters but lost 38-35
in OT) or the Raiders on Sunday (led 18-3 at the half
but lost 31-28) understands the frustration. If you have
never tried betting on First Half lines you are missing
a valuable tool from your wagering arsenal. That is the
topic for this week’s column and it seems like a good
time with six teams losing this weekend despite Halftime
leads (Bengals, Falcons, Titans and Broncos were the
other four teams). I will focus on the NFL for today but
please note that most of what you read today will be
directly applicable to college football as well.
Books offer first half wagering for the simple purpose
of increasing handle. The more you bet, the more
(hopefully) the book earns. There is not much secret in
how First Half lines are derived; it is generally just
the pointspread for the game cut in half with a
half-point to full-point adjustment against the favorite.
For example, the Monday Night game (Colts at Tampa Bay)
had a pointspread of Tampa Bay –4.5 or –5 and a First
Half spread of –3 (even). There is usually a bias
against the favorite team because bettors tend to prefer
them in the First Half as perception is that the favored
team is more likely to get out to a quick lead in the
First Half before allowing a “back-door” cover in the
Second Half. However, I have yet to see any statistics
that prove that either the dog or favorite for the game
are a better bet. Like any other bet type, you need to
pick your spots.
It is very easy to find a team’s total points for and
against for the season as a total. Every newspaper and
major sports website provides this readily. What is
tougher to find is a team’s points for and against
broken out by first half and second half. I track this
myself every week in a spreadsheet and it helps because
interesting mismatches do appear. Remember that a team
is playing the same opponent in both half’s of every
game so even great and horrible teams will have a
stronger half.
Imagine one team outscores its opponents 48-7 in the
first half of the first four games but is only even at
31-31 in the second half. It would be a good team
because it has outscored its opponents 79-38 and that
team would probably be 4-0 straight-up but may not have
covered the spread all four times. This would be a
strong contender for a first half play.
Conversely a team that is outscored 48-7 in all its
first halves to date and manages to get to 31-31 in its
second halves would be bad and probably winless; but may
have a couple of back-door covers to its credit. This
would be a strong candidate to play against in the first
half.
These examples are dramatic, but you get the idea; some
teams get off to a quick start but fade while others
start slowly but finish strong. When you compare two
teams that are playing each other and see that one plays
better in the first half and their opponent plays better
in the second half, there may be an opportunity to
exploit the weakness of the first half pointspread. This
is by no means a system, but it is definitely something
you can easily do in a few minutes every week. If 15
minutes a week of tracking scores by half leads you to
find a single winning play, then it is worth it every
time.
Now for a quick look back at the week. Houston beat up
East Carolina 27-13 on Tuesday to give players a good
start to the week. Miami (Fla) -14 was a huge play in
the first half on Thursday but they could only muster a
10-10 score at the break and were lucky to get the 22-20
win despite being 27-point favorites. A West Virginia
win would have been a candidate for upset of the year!
Friday was a good day for the book with the 17-13 Utah
win over Oregon.
Saturday saw bettors hit early with Wisconsin 30-23 (Pk
@ Penn State) and late with Oklahoma 53-7 (-21 @ Iowa
State) and Texas Tech 51-28(-6 vs. Texas A&M). In
between the book had wins on Georgia Tech 29-21(+6 vs.
NC State), UCLA 46-16 (+2.5 vs. Washington) and Auburn
28-21 (-1 vs. Tennessee). I am sure bettors must be
getting frustrated with Auburn; when they bet on them,
Auburn got beat badly but when they have bet against
them, Auburn has won. Strange season! Biggest game of
the day went to the book when Iowa squeaked out a 30-27
over 3.5-point favorite Michigan.
Sunday was a pretty good day for the book, although
players won the biggest decision of the day when the
Vikings (-5) beat up on the Vickless Falcons 39-26.
Chicago’s first win over the Raiders 24-21 was a good
result, as were the wins by New England and Cleveland.
Cincinnati, New Orleans, Denver, and Washington all
couldn’t win but kept it close enough the cover the
spread and win for the House.
It was a very good day for teaser bettors though with a
lot of games around the spread. Buffalo -7.5, Carolina
-7, Kansas City -3, Philadelphia -4.5, and San Francisco
-7.5 all didn't cover but teasers with those lines were
winners. Buffalo, Carolina and San Francisco were very
popular teaser plays. The only bright spot there for the
books was the Cleveland upset over 7-point favorite
Pittsburgh.
Baseball volume was outstanding early in the week but
definitely tapered off when football was in the air.
Bettors generally did well with the Yankees and Cubs,
and the Red Sox rally was good for them as well. We did
see San Francisco Giants money for the most part so that
was the only series that went our way.
Good luck this week and I will be back next week with an
article on Halftime betting.
The enjoyment of your wagering experience with us is my
number one priority. Should you have any questions,
concerns, or comments, I will personally ensure you are
satisfied with your BoDog experience.
Good luck with your wagers!
rob@bodog.com
Rob Gillespie
President BoDog.com
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