|
Each week I chat with a few of our
clerks about what we can do better or what the biggest issues are for
clients. As you all know, the standard payoff on a football
pointspread is 10/11 (or –110) but occasionally books deviate from
that. Anything other than –110 is referred to as an ‘off-standard’
line and it is standard practice for football. However, at this time
of year, there are many clients that are new to betting with an
International sportsbook and some are puzzled when one of their wagers
doesn’t pay out $50 on a risk of $55. In fact, one player last year
closed his account because our lines were “weird” and one this week
called to vent at me about our “outrageous 20% vig”.
It looks like there will be
off-standard lines on at least five NFL games next weekend, including
the Sunday night and Monday night games, I figure this is a perfect
time to explain the what and why of off-standard lines. Again, I have
borrowed from a column I wrote last football season, but it warrants
repeating at the start of every football season in my opinion.
First off, football is unique among
the major pro sports in terms of how points are scored. In baseball,
hockey and soccer, all scores are valued as a single point. These
sports also tend to have low scores and the average margin of victory
is extremely low so pointspreads aren’t used in the same way as they
are in football and basketball, and moneylines are the most common
form of betting.
Basketball scores come in increments
of 1, 2 or 3, but the high amount of scoring makes for an even
distribution of final scores. As a result, basketball is perhaps the
simplest sport to wager on in terms of lines offered. Football gets
complicated because the scoring comes in chunks of 3 points (for a
Field Goal) and 7 points (for a converted Touchdown). There is also a
small amount of other scoring possibilities with safeties providing 2
points, missed extra points making a Touchdown worth only 6 and the
two point conversion making 8 a possibility.
Scoring in football tends to take
place an average of only about 8 times a game and as a result of few
scores; the final scores do group around certain numbers, known as key
numbers. The major key numbers are 3 and 7, but 1, 4,
6, 10, 13 and 14 have a high likelihood of being the final margin of
victory as well and are sometimes referred to as minor key
numbers. If we look at how all these numbers relate to 3 and
7, its easy to see why they occur frequently. The following chart
shows the frequency of certain final scores for the 2002 NFL season as
well as the relationship of the number to a combination of Touchdowns
and Field Goals:
3 16.0% Field Goal
7 11.3% Touchdown
6 6.6% 2 Field Goals
10 5.1% Touchdown + Field Goal
This past weekend had 4 of the 16
games decided by a Field Goal! It is easy to see that a Field Goal is
the difference in a lot of NFL games. I’m sure that this is not a big
surprise to you but let’s look at this from a sportsbook’s point of
view.
Let’s use an imaginary Pittsburgh-New
England game to illustrate the danger to the House and what
sportsbooks must to do to avoid the peril. Say the line in this case
opened at Pittsburgh –2.5. Here is where the Book Manager’s nightmare
begins. At –2.5 bettors loved the Steelers but as soon as the House
moved to –3, the action shifted to New England. If 3 weren’t a key
number, this would have been no problem, as book managers would simply
move between the two numbers to balance action. Unfortunately, because
the spread was –3, moving between 2.5 and 3 entails large risks. I
have covered this in previous columns, but here is a quick recap.
In the most basic of cases, lets
assume there were wagers of $110 to win $100 on the Steelers –2.5 and
then $110 to win $100 on Patriots +3. The game is balanced but the
House would risk being sided if the game ended with the Steelers up 3.
The Pittsburgh wagers would win but the Patriots wagers would push so
the House would lose the $100. In this case, the House would be in a
situation where it could only lose $100 or collect the vig of $10 if
the score fell on any other number.
The chance of the final score for a
game landing on 3 is roughly 16% as we saw above. Assuming an even
split between dogs and favorites, the chance of a 3 point favorite
winning by 3 is about 8%. This would mean that 8% of these games would
result in the House being sided or middled. This would be disastrous
for a business where 4.5% is the desired profit margin! Now lets look
at what sportsbooks do to balance action without moving on or off key
numbers.
What books do is alter the odds
associated with the pointspread. Most pointspreads are offered at
standard odds of –110, meaning you must risk $110 to win $100.
(Remember that when sportsbooks move a pointspread, the odds don’t
change, as the spreads only affect whether your wager is a winner or
not. Changing the odds, on the other hand, doesn’t affect whether your
wager is a winner or not, but instead affects the payout.) By changing
the odds away from the standard of –110, the House can make the same
line more or less attractive to people looking to place wagers.
If bettors like the Steelers –2.5 and
also like the Patriots +3, a middle ground is the bookmaker’s only
choice. In this case, the line might be Steelers –2.5 –120 (making the
Pats +2.5 Even) at some books and –3 Even (making the Pats +3 -120) at
others. Bettors now have a choice, they could take Pittsburgh at only
–2.5 but would have to risk $120 to win $100 or they could give up the
3-points but risk only $100 to win $100. The –3 spread is far more
likely to be a push but the payoff is better. New England bettors
could now get +3 instead of +2.5 but would have to risk $120 instead
of $100 to win $100. Off-standard lines split the bettors into the two
groups (those that like the extra half point and those that like
laying the lower price) and give books a chance to balance action
without having to move on-and-off a spread such as –3.
I checked 20 books on Sunday and they
all had off-standard lines on at least two games, so this is far more
common in the NFL than many new bettors think it is. Hopefully now
when you see a sportsbook offer a line that is off-standard, you will
know the logic behind it and hopefully you can benefit by looking for
some value and laying less than -110 on the team you want. This also
explains why many books charge premiums for buying points on or off
key numbers.
Now for a quick recap of the week.
Thursday night was good for the book when Utah rallied to beat Cal.
The line moved from Utah -1.5 all the way to +1 because of injuries to
Utah. Friday was good as well when Toledo upset Marshall. Saturday saw
bettors win with Purdue (-2.5 at Wake Forest), Rutgers (-7.5 at Army),
Iowa (-5 at Iowa St.), Kansas (+4.5 at Wyoming) and Oregon (-13 at
Arizona). The House also did well with Penn St (+10.5 at Nebraska),
Michigan (-10 vs. Notre Dame), UNLV (+20.5 at Wisconsin), Arkansas
(+14 at Texas) and Georgia (-13.5 vs. South Carolina). The Purdue/Wake
Forest had the most action of any of Saturday's games but
Michigan/Notre Dame and Penn St/Nebraska were close behind.
Sunday was a good day to be a bettor
with them cashing in big on Buffalo and Miami as 3-point road
favorites. Kansas City, Green Bay and the Rams/49ers Over were also
good for bettors early. The Colts were the biggest win for bookies
early by far, but the Clev/Balt total going over was very good as
well. The late afternoon games went the book's way though with big
wins on Carolina, New England (I hear there is an APB out for the
Eagle's offence in Philly) and Cincinnati. Bettors did have a big win
with Seattle and a small one with Denver, betting was all Vikings and
the line moved from -8.5 to -10. Minnesota dominated but needed a late
TD on a 3rd down play to cover. Books rallied from a losing Sunday for
a big win with the Cowboys upsetting the Giants.
I’ll be back next week with a look at
shopping for lines.
The enjoyment of your wagering
experience with us is my number one priority. Should you have any
questions, concerns, or comments, I will personally ensure you are
satisfied with your BoDog experience.
Good luck with your wagers!
rob@bodog.com
Rob Gillespie
BoDog.com
President
|
