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Over the last couple of weeks, I have discussed how
a pointspread is derived by a sportsbook and why the lines change. Now
that we know the how and why of pointspreads, we can discuss how best
to take advantage of different lines books offer. Like the last few
columns, long-time readers will find the material familiar, but I
think these topics are important enough that every bettor should brush
up each football season. If you are new to sports betting, this is a
very important principle to learn.
When you are betting football and basketball spreads
and totals and laying 110 to win 100 on every bet, you need to win
52.38% of your bets just to break even and cover the juice you pay to
sportsbooks. It could be argued that anybody could win 50% of games by
flipping a coin or by having your dog pick teams (which I find
annoying as I struggle to hit that mark some weeks) so the tough part
is finding enough overlays to boost your win percentage above the
52.4% mark. However, there are other ways to boost your win
percentage, one of which is shopping for the best available line you
can find.
If you have an account at only one sportsbook, you
have no choice but to either accept the line offered or not bet. If
you use two sportsbooks, you can compare the lines you get and wager
on the one that provides you with the best opportunity to win your
bet. Why would you have wagered Over 46 on the Oakland/Denver game
last night if you could have gotten over 45.5? Why would you bet Over
45.5 if you could have gotten a wager in Over 45? This seems like
common sense, but it is surprising to me how many players take no heed
of the line they are betting on.
Estimates vary, but getting an extra half-point
betters your chance of winning a wager by about 2%. This is
particularly important around key numbers in football, 3 and 7, and
smaller numbers in general. By smaller numbers, I mean the difference
between a 2 and a 2.5-point line is more likely to make a difference
than is the difference between a 22 and a 22.5-point line, but it
doesn’t mean you shouldn’t make an effort to get the best line
possible every time. As an example, we can look at the last college
football game on Saturday, Louisiana Tech at Fresno State. Lines
ranged from Fresno State –10.5 to Fresno State –9. With a final score
16-6, it made a big difference what line you got regardless of which
team you bet!
It’s up to you to decide how many books you should
use. Too few means you don’t have enough variation in the lines but if
you have too many, you may lose some opportunities as it will take too
long to shop all the lines and your bankroll could be spread too thin.
Be sure to choose sportsbooks where it is easy to get the lines you
need very quickly. The magic number is probably somewhere between
three and five books for most people, but if you only have one
account, even getting two more sets of lines to look at for every game
should make a big difference to your bottom line at the end of the
season. Getting a few extra wins or pushes over the course of the
season makes that extra shopping well worth the effort.
Last year, I was explaining this concept to my uncle
and I asked him “How many games have you lost by a half-point?” There
was a long pause and he answered “Every <bleep>ing one”. I am still
not quite sure what he meant by that but it was obvious that he had
lost enough games by a half-point or a point to know the value of the
advice I was giving him.
Another factor in beating the number and boosting
your win percentage is timing. I am sure you have all experienced a
game where your morning paper says the line is Rams –8 and as you do
your research you like the Rams, but by the time you go to bet, the
line is –9.5. So, if St. Louis wins by 9, your handicapping
essentially picked a winner even though your bet was a loser! Even
shopping for the best line may not have made a difference if you
wagered later in the day after the line had moved from –8 to –9.5.
Pay close attention to opening lines and then which
way they move from there before making any plays. For example, if a
line opens at –6.5 and moves to –6, you know sportsbooks are likely
getting action on the Underdog. If you like the Favorite in that
particular game, you may be better served by waiting as that line
moves from –6 to –5.5 to –5 over the course of the day or the week.
This is tougher to do than shopping for the best line and takes some
experience to get a feel for which way lines move, but after even just
a couple of weeks of tracking opening and closing lines, you will be
better prepared to get the best possible number on every wager you
place.
As a starting point, the pros use a couple of
guidelines for shopping football lines. Generally the public prefers
favorites and over with the total so the lines tend to move in that
direction (but not all the time or books would simply raise those
opening lines). Thus, the rule-of-thumb is to play Favorites and Overs
early and to play Underdogs and Unders late. You won’t get the best
line every time following this rule, but it should serve as a solid
base and will boost your win percentage.
Betting the best games at the best line should be
the goal of every sports bettor trying to make a profit. I must give
credit to the guy who years ago taught me how to “beat the number”. He
is a professional bettor named Rocket and he is one of the nicest and
funniest guys in this business. For those that read the column a
couple of weeks ago where I mentioned power ratings and were wondering
where to get them, Rocket actually has a site that posts several sets
of power ratings,
http://www.sportspowerratings.com.
It was definitely an exciting weekend where both
bettors and books had some big wins! Thursday was even; the House did
well with Virginia Tech over Texas A&M and bettors cashed on
Nevada-Reno over San Jose State. Friday was a good night for books
with UNLV's big win over Hawaii.
Saturday had only one real big decision, and it went
our way when Iowa beat Arizona State 21-2. Bettors had decent wins
early on NC State (-6.5 vs. Texas Tech) and late with Texas (-33 @
Rice) but the house did well with Tennessee (+4 @ Florida), Oregon (+7
vs. Michigan), Toledo (+10 vs. Pitt), and Clemson (+6 vs. Georgia
Tech) in between. Heaviest bet games of the day were Miami/Boston
College, Michigan/Oregon, Iowa/Arizona State and Florida/Tennessee.
Sunday morning was great for the betting public with
Favorites going 7-0 and covering in every game. Books got beat up on
Tampa Bay (-6.5 @ Atlanta), Pittsburgh (-5.5 @ Cincinnati) and
Minnesota (-4 @ Detroit). KC was also a popular play and a win for the
bettors as well. The Vikings/Lions Under 47.5 was the only bright spot
for the book. The afternoon was a different story as books got revenge
when the dogs went 5-0 ATS (against-the-spread). Books won big when
Arizona and Cleveland upset Green Bay and San Francisco respectively.
That was one of the wackiest days I have ever seen.
Both the SNF and MNF games saw balanced action on
the spread but a little heavier dog action on the moneyline so the two
favorites winning were good results for the House. The Bills/Dolphins
going under was good for the book as well.
Next week’s topic is Money Management, which I think
is the key to being a successful bettors. If you only read one more of
my columns – next week is the one you want.
The enjoyment of your wagering experience with us is
my number one priority. Should you have any questions, concerns, or
comments, I will personally ensure you are satisfied with your BoDog
experience.
Good luck with your wagers!
rob@bodog.com
Rob Gillespie
President |
